30 Nov 2009, 1751 hrs IST, PTI
MUMBAI: The stock markets today shrugged off the Dubai hiccups and ended the days almost two per cent higher, and analysts believe the momentum is likely to continue as the street will take positive cues from the robust economic growth, as well as global rally.
The economy grew by a robust 7.9 per cent in the September quarter, propelled by increased government spending and surge in the manufacturing sector.
"The GDP figures are higher compared to market expectations. If the third quarter figures
continue to hold above seven per cent, then overseas investors may increase their asset allocation in stocks here," Taurus Mutual Fund managing director RK Gupta said.
Analysts feel buoyed by good growth across all vital sectors, domestic markets sustained momentum throughout the day despite weak European cues. The European stocks were down by one per cent in early trade.
"The domestic trigger is strong enough to hold the market steady against weak European cues. Going ahead, investors should watch the movement in the US markets for a direction," Unicon Financial chief executive Gajendra Nagpal said.
The benchmark Sensex today closed up 294.21 points or 1.77 per cent at 16,926.22. During the intra-day trade the index had scaled up to 17,027, a rise of 395 points.
"A positive development in the US markets today could catapult our markets further. However, a negative trend might not bring in much of a fall," Nagpal said.
During the September quarter the manufacturing output grew by 9.2 per cent as consumers increased purchases of cars and other goods.
"The manufacturing sector growth is likely to increase in the December quarter. If the farm output increases in the same tune, then the country can clock a decent growth. Fresh money can come into the stock markets around February," Gupta added.
Further, agriculture output was up by 0.9 per cent during the quarter, while the services sector grew by 12.7 per cent during the reporting quarter.
For the first half, the economy grew by seven per cent against 7.8 per cent a year ago, prompting the finance minister to say that the economy would log in over 7 per cent growth this fiscal.
"The GDP figures reinforces the fact that the stimulus provided by the government both on the monetary front and the fiscal stimulus are bearing results. We can expect an upgradation in the overall GDP growth numbers for FY10," Angel Broking VP for research Sarabjit Kour Nangra said.
Echoing similar views Nagpal noted that close to seven per cent growth in FY10 would be a good figure for the market.
vIA:E.T
Monday, November 30, 2009
Stimulus pushes Q2 GDP up 7.9% Y-O-Y
30 Nov 2009, 1116 hrs IST, REUTERS
NEW DELHI: India's economy grew an annual 7.9 percent in the September quarter, much faster than expected on government stimulus spending and a surge in manufacturing, adding pressure on the central bank to lift interest rates as inflation rises.
The annual growth for India's fiscal second quarter was far above a median forecast of 6.3 percent in a Reuters poll as agricultural output performed better than expected, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond up by 2 basis points as investors bet on higher interest rates. The growth was the strongest for Asia's third-largest economy in 18 months.
"This data could be a green light for the Reserve Bank of India to hike rates, and there are greater chances of this by end of the calendar year. The exit from the fiscal stimulus by the government may also be earlier post the GDP data," said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, senior Asia economist at HSBC in Singapore.
In the June quarter, India's economy grew 6.1 percent from a year earlier, and Prior-Wandesforde said that by his calculation the September's period's growth was the sharpest on a quarter-by-quarter basis since quarterly data began in 1996.
Manufacturing output expanded 9.2 percent in the September quarter as consumers stepped up purchases of cars and other goods. Farm output was up 0.9 percent, beating expectations for a decline, although economists warned that the impact of the poor monsoon was likely to be seen in the current quarter.
"The December quarter will show agriculture declining, because that's when the harvest shortfall will get captured," said Rajeev Malik, economist at Macquarie in Singapore, who stuck with his view that the central bank would deploy liquidity management steps rather than rate hikes in December and January.
"I don't think they (RBI) are going to be swung by what agriculture has done on a technical basis," he said. Last week, India's finance minister expressed worry about rising food prices -- the result of a bad summer monsoon and floods that have crimped farm output.
On Monday, however, a top government advisor said there were no serious inflation concerns for now and said he expected no change in government stimulus policy for the current fiscal year. "It is difficult to project what will happen in the rest of the year. But this performance does suggest that there may well have to be an upward revision in the GDP growth of 6.5 percent which has been projected so far," Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of India's Planning Commission.
India's roaring September quarter performance still lagged the 8.9 percent growth recorded by China during the same quarter. Consumers' share of spending in the Indian economy totalled 53.5 percent in July-September, roughly in line with 53.4 percent a year earlier, while the government's share rose to 10.6 percent from 8.7 percent on the back of stimulus spending, Monday's data showed.
The economy accelerated from its 5.8 percent rate in the December and March quarters to 6.1 percent in June on pick-ups in the mining, manufacturing, and electricity and services sectors from the previous quarter. In the 2008/09 fiscal year , India's economy grew 6.7 percent, its weakest in six years and well below rates of 9 percent or more in the previous three years.
The Reserve Bank of India has warned the poor monsoon was more likely to drive inflation than to curb growth. The index of food prices jumped 15.6 percent in the year to mid-November, although supply-side inflation is largely beyond the purview of monetary policy.
The central bank cut its key lending rate by 425 basis points between October 2008 and April, while the government slashed duty rates and stepped up spending to pump-prime the economy and prevent massive job losses. The central bank forecast growth during 2009/10 would come in at 6 percent with an upward bias.
The finance minister said last week growth could be 6-7 percent in 2009/10 and rebound to 8 percent next year. The Reserve Bank of India late last month began its exit from its extremely loose monetary policy by removing some of the liquidity support measures implemented to help India weather the global downturn. Economists in a Reuters poll at the time were divided over when the RBI would begin to raise interest rates, but were unanimous that rates would increase by the end of April. The central bank will hold monetary policy review meetings in January and April, but can adjust rates at any time.
NEW DELHI: India's economy grew an annual 7.9 percent in the September quarter, much faster than expected on government stimulus spending and a surge in manufacturing, adding pressure on the central bank to lift interest rates as inflation rises.
The annual growth for India's fiscal second quarter was far above a median forecast of 6.3 percent in a Reuters poll as agricultural output performed better than expected, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond up by 2 basis points as investors bet on higher interest rates. The growth was the strongest for Asia's third-largest economy in 18 months.
"This data could be a green light for the Reserve Bank of India to hike rates, and there are greater chances of this by end of the calendar year. The exit from the fiscal stimulus by the government may also be earlier post the GDP data," said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, senior Asia economist at HSBC in Singapore.
In the June quarter, India's economy grew 6.1 percent from a year earlier, and Prior-Wandesforde said that by his calculation the September's period's growth was the sharpest on a quarter-by-quarter basis since quarterly data began in 1996.
Manufacturing output expanded 9.2 percent in the September quarter as consumers stepped up purchases of cars and other goods. Farm output was up 0.9 percent, beating expectations for a decline, although economists warned that the impact of the poor monsoon was likely to be seen in the current quarter.
"The December quarter will show agriculture declining, because that's when the harvest shortfall will get captured," said Rajeev Malik, economist at Macquarie in Singapore, who stuck with his view that the central bank would deploy liquidity management steps rather than rate hikes in December and January.
"I don't think they (RBI) are going to be swung by what agriculture has done on a technical basis," he said. Last week, India's finance minister expressed worry about rising food prices -- the result of a bad summer monsoon and floods that have crimped farm output.
On Monday, however, a top government advisor said there were no serious inflation concerns for now and said he expected no change in government stimulus policy for the current fiscal year. "It is difficult to project what will happen in the rest of the year. But this performance does suggest that there may well have to be an upward revision in the GDP growth of 6.5 percent which has been projected so far," Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of India's Planning Commission.
India's roaring September quarter performance still lagged the 8.9 percent growth recorded by China during the same quarter. Consumers' share of spending in the Indian economy totalled 53.5 percent in July-September, roughly in line with 53.4 percent a year earlier, while the government's share rose to 10.6 percent from 8.7 percent on the back of stimulus spending, Monday's data showed.
The economy accelerated from its 5.8 percent rate in the December and March quarters to 6.1 percent in June on pick-ups in the mining, manufacturing, and electricity and services sectors from the previous quarter. In the 2008/09 fiscal year , India's economy grew 6.7 percent, its weakest in six years and well below rates of 9 percent or more in the previous three years.
The Reserve Bank of India has warned the poor monsoon was more likely to drive inflation than to curb growth. The index of food prices jumped 15.6 percent in the year to mid-November, although supply-side inflation is largely beyond the purview of monetary policy.
The central bank cut its key lending rate by 425 basis points between October 2008 and April, while the government slashed duty rates and stepped up spending to pump-prime the economy and prevent massive job losses. The central bank forecast growth during 2009/10 would come in at 6 percent with an upward bias.
The finance minister said last week growth could be 6-7 percent in 2009/10 and rebound to 8 percent next year. The Reserve Bank of India late last month began its exit from its extremely loose monetary policy by removing some of the liquidity support measures implemented to help India weather the global downturn. Economists in a Reuters poll at the time were divided over when the RBI would begin to raise interest rates, but were unanimous that rates would increase by the end of April. The central bank will hold monetary policy review meetings in January and April, but can adjust rates at any time.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
FACTBOX - What assets Dubai could be forced to sell
DUBAI (Reuters) - Dubai will attempt to reassure markets and investors on Monday on how it plans to restructure its beleaguered conglomerate Dubai World after it requested a shock standstill from bondholders for a $3.5 billion bond maturing on Dec 14.
The lack of clarity and the prospect of bondholders rejecting the delay in repayments could lead to a fire sale of prize assets and even push the emirate to divest speculative investments made during the six-year boom that are unlikely to generate long-term revenue.
Following are details of key assets and high-profile holdings possibly up for sale.
DUBAI WORLD ASSETS
DP WORLD
One of the world's largest port operators is arguably the crown jewel in its trophy cabinet. Its 2007 IPO, the region's largest to date, raised almost $5 billion, but its share price has fallen by more than two thirds of its original value. The firm went to reassure investors on Nov. 26 it was not part of Dubai World's restructuring. Dubai World was in talks with a private equity firm to sell a stake in the port operator.
STANDARD CHARTERED
Istithmar bought a 2.7 percent stake worth about $1 billion in October, 2006. The bank signalled on Friday its exposure to Dubai World would not be material.
MGM MIRAGE
In 2007, Dubai World invested about $5 billion in casino operator MGM Mirage by buying shares and half of an $8.5 billion Las Vegas project. Dubai World last year sued MGM Mirage as credit dried up and CityCenter flirted with bankruptcy. The project has been plagued by construction problems.
BARNEYS
Istithmar World bought U.S. luxury retail chain Barneys for $942 million in 2007. Barneys hired restructuring advisory firm Perella Weinberg in August to help it mull options that would shore up its financial position.
PERELLA WEINBERG
Istithmar also invested about $100 million into the boutique investment bank in 2006.
CIRQUE DU SOLEIL
Property developer Nakheel and Istithmar bought a 20 percent stake in Montreal-based international circus touring company in June 2008 and had planned to build a theater with the group on its main palm-shaped island.
TURNBERRY GOLF COURSE
Leisurecorp, Dubai World's leisure and sports investment unit, bought the Turnberry Golf course, home to golf's oldest competition, from Starwood Hotels & Resorts in Nov 2008 for about $100 million.
QUEEN ELIZABETH 2 LINER
Originally bought in 2007 for $100 million to be converted into a luxury hotel and moored off Dubai's Palm, the ship's future has been under scrutiny since it docked at Port Rashid in Dubai last year for refurbishment. In July, Nakheel said it was mulling moving the liner to another location, or Africa.
ATLANTIS DUBAI
The resort, which opened in November to a $50 million firework display, is a joint venture with South Africa tycoon Sol Kerzner.
DUBAI PRIZE ASSETS
EMIRATES
The airline, whose chairman also chairs Dubai's supreme fiscal committee, has $55 billion of orders of planes from Boeing and Airbus. It has been at the forefront of turning Dubai into an international hub and had been nearing a potential share sale before the financial crisis hit. Emirates has repeatedly fought back speculation it would merge with Abu Dhabi's carrier Etihad Airways.
DUBAI ALUMINIUM
Established in 1979, the aluminium producer has become one of the world's largest producers and exporters of the metal and in 2006 entered into a joint venture with Mubadala Development Co, a wholly-owned investment vehicle of the Abu Dhabi government to build one of the largest single aluminium plants in the world.
LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE
Borse Dubai, which took a 21 percent stake in the bourse operator in November 2007, said in June it saw its LSE investment as long-term and had no plans to sell its stake. LSE shares were among the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 after Dubai's debt news.
HSBC
The investment arm of Dubai's ruler Dubai International Capital (DIC) in 2007 bought an undisclosed stake in HSBC making it one of the largest investors in Europe's biggest banks. DIC in 2006 set up a fund aimed at buying into some of world's largest listed equities. The group earlier this year went under restructuring and its chief executive left the company.
DEUTSCHE BANK
DIFC Investments, a unit of the Dubai international Financial Centre, bought a 2.2 percent stake in the German lender in 2007 in a deal worth about $1.83 billion. The DIFC's governor was last week replaced as part of a shake-up Dubai's hierarchy.
SONY CORP
Dubai International Capital through its Global Strategic Equities Fund (GSEF) bought a stake in the Japanese electronics and entertainment firm in 2007 in what it described at the time as a substantial investment. Anyone who buys more than 5 percent of a listed company on Tokyo is required to report the stake to regulators within five business days.
EUROPEAN AERONAUTIC DEFENCE & SPACE COMPANY (EADS)
The GSEF also bought into Airbus' parent company taking a 3.12 percent stake, making it one of the largest institutional investors in the aerospace group.
ALLIANCE MEDICAL
DIC also in 2007 bought Alliance Medical for $1.25 billion with plans to expand one of Europe's largest MRI and CT scan services provider into the Middle East and Asia.
EMAAR PROPERTIES
The Arab world's largest property developer by market value is in the midst of a merger with three other state-linked developers after a failed acquisition in the United States and Dubai's real estate market crashing left it vulnerable. Still, its portfolio includes the world's tallest tower Burj Dubai, set to open in January, and one of the world's biggest malls already open.
(Compiled by John Irish; Editing by Mike Nesbit)
The lack of clarity and the prospect of bondholders rejecting the delay in repayments could lead to a fire sale of prize assets and even push the emirate to divest speculative investments made during the six-year boom that are unlikely to generate long-term revenue.
Following are details of key assets and high-profile holdings possibly up for sale.
DUBAI WORLD ASSETS
DP WORLD
One of the world's largest port operators is arguably the crown jewel in its trophy cabinet. Its 2007 IPO, the region's largest to date, raised almost $5 billion, but its share price has fallen by more than two thirds of its original value. The firm went to reassure investors on Nov. 26 it was not part of Dubai World's restructuring. Dubai World was in talks with a private equity firm to sell a stake in the port operator.
STANDARD CHARTERED
Istithmar bought a 2.7 percent stake worth about $1 billion in October, 2006. The bank signalled on Friday its exposure to Dubai World would not be material.
MGM MIRAGE
In 2007, Dubai World invested about $5 billion in casino operator MGM Mirage by buying shares and half of an $8.5 billion Las Vegas project. Dubai World last year sued MGM Mirage as credit dried up and CityCenter flirted with bankruptcy. The project has been plagued by construction problems.
BARNEYS
Istithmar World bought U.S. luxury retail chain Barneys for $942 million in 2007. Barneys hired restructuring advisory firm Perella Weinberg in August to help it mull options that would shore up its financial position.
PERELLA WEINBERG
Istithmar also invested about $100 million into the boutique investment bank in 2006.
CIRQUE DU SOLEIL
Property developer Nakheel and Istithmar bought a 20 percent stake in Montreal-based international circus touring company in June 2008 and had planned to build a theater with the group on its main palm-shaped island.
TURNBERRY GOLF COURSE
Leisurecorp, Dubai World's leisure and sports investment unit, bought the Turnberry Golf course, home to golf's oldest competition, from Starwood Hotels & Resorts in Nov 2008 for about $100 million.
QUEEN ELIZABETH 2 LINER
Originally bought in 2007 for $100 million to be converted into a luxury hotel and moored off Dubai's Palm, the ship's future has been under scrutiny since it docked at Port Rashid in Dubai last year for refurbishment. In July, Nakheel said it was mulling moving the liner to another location, or Africa.
ATLANTIS DUBAI
The resort, which opened in November to a $50 million firework display, is a joint venture with South Africa tycoon Sol Kerzner.
DUBAI PRIZE ASSETS
EMIRATES
The airline, whose chairman also chairs Dubai's supreme fiscal committee, has $55 billion of orders of planes from Boeing and Airbus. It has been at the forefront of turning Dubai into an international hub and had been nearing a potential share sale before the financial crisis hit. Emirates has repeatedly fought back speculation it would merge with Abu Dhabi's carrier Etihad Airways.
DUBAI ALUMINIUM
Established in 1979, the aluminium producer has become one of the world's largest producers and exporters of the metal and in 2006 entered into a joint venture with Mubadala Development Co, a wholly-owned investment vehicle of the Abu Dhabi government to build one of the largest single aluminium plants in the world.
LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE
Borse Dubai, which took a 21 percent stake in the bourse operator in November 2007, said in June it saw its LSE investment as long-term and had no plans to sell its stake. LSE shares were among the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 after Dubai's debt news.
HSBC
The investment arm of Dubai's ruler Dubai International Capital (DIC) in 2007 bought an undisclosed stake in HSBC making it one of the largest investors in Europe's biggest banks. DIC in 2006 set up a fund aimed at buying into some of world's largest listed equities. The group earlier this year went under restructuring and its chief executive left the company.
DEUTSCHE BANK
DIFC Investments, a unit of the Dubai international Financial Centre, bought a 2.2 percent stake in the German lender in 2007 in a deal worth about $1.83 billion. The DIFC's governor was last week replaced as part of a shake-up Dubai's hierarchy.
SONY CORP
Dubai International Capital through its Global Strategic Equities Fund (GSEF) bought a stake in the Japanese electronics and entertainment firm in 2007 in what it described at the time as a substantial investment. Anyone who buys more than 5 percent of a listed company on Tokyo is required to report the stake to regulators within five business days.
EUROPEAN AERONAUTIC DEFENCE & SPACE COMPANY (EADS)
The GSEF also bought into Airbus' parent company taking a 3.12 percent stake, making it one of the largest institutional investors in the aerospace group.
ALLIANCE MEDICAL
DIC also in 2007 bought Alliance Medical for $1.25 billion with plans to expand one of Europe's largest MRI and CT scan services provider into the Middle East and Asia.
EMAAR PROPERTIES
The Arab world's largest property developer by market value is in the midst of a merger with three other state-linked developers after a failed acquisition in the United States and Dubai's real estate market crashing left it vulnerable. Still, its portfolio includes the world's tallest tower Burj Dubai, set to open in January, and one of the world's biggest malls already open.
(Compiled by John Irish; Editing by Mike Nesbit)
FACTBOX - Gulf Arab policy steps to address financial crisis
REUTERS - Gulf Arab oil exporters have adopted an array of policy measures to ease tight liquidity and prop up sagging investor confidence during a global recession.
Dubai's government took the latest step on Sunday, and said it would provide additional financing for commercial banks and it stood behind the Gulf Arab country's banking system and branches of foreign banks.
Below are details of government and central bank actions.
KUWAIT
Aug 10 - Kuwait central bank said it would issue $348 million of one-year treasury bonds on Aug. 12.
Aug 4 - Central bank said it would issue $348.8 million of one-year treasury bonds on Aug. 5 at a coupon of 1.5 percent.
July 1 - Central bank cut its three repurchase rates by 25 basis points each, but left its benchmark discount rate on hold.
May 13 - Kuwait central bank decides to cut benchmark discount rate by 50 bps to 3 pct from May 14. This is the fifth cut since October, taking total reduction to 275 basis points.
April 2 - Kuwait's cabinet approved a bylaw to implement a $5.11 billion economic support package, including a guarantee of 50 percent of new loans extended to local firms.
Nov. 19 - The central bank introduced new short-term repurchase agreements to give banks more access to funding.
Dec. 4 - Sovereign wealth fund said it would invest 1.5 billion dinars in local equities, adding later the funds aimed to stabilise the bourse and would invest for the long term.
Oct. 29 - Kuwait passed law guaranteeing all bank deposits after the central bank was forced to save Gulf Bank, which suffered steep derivatives trading losses.
Oct. 9 - The Kuwait Investment Authority pumped cash into the bourse to help stabilise markets.
SAUDI ARABIA
June 16 - Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) halved the interest rate it pays to commercial banks for deposits, but kept its benchmark repurchase rate unchanged.
June 4 - Saudi Arabia's central bank freezes some bank accounts related to industrial group Ahmad Hamad Al Gosaibi Group & Brothers (AHAB), bankers said.
June 1 - Central bank orders domestic lenders to freeze bank accounts of businessman Maan al-Sanea, one of the country's wealthiest businessmen, chairman and founder of the Saad group, and big shareholder in HSBC.
May 17 - Central bank governor said Saudi was drawing on some foreign reserves but not selling foreign assets to finance a growing budget designed to stimulate the economy.
April 14 - Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) cut its reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent. It had reduced the rate in January and December by a total of 125 basis points.
Jan. 19 - SAMA cuts benchmark repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 2 percent, having lowered it by 50 basis points in December. In five moves since October, the repo has been lowered by a total of 350 basis points.
Nov. 23 - SAMA lowered bank reserve requirements to 7 percent from 10 percent. Since October, it has reduced the reserve ratio from 13 percent.
Oct. 21 - SAMA poured $3 billion in long-term bank deposits, its first direct injection of U.S. dollars in a decade.
Oct. 17 - Saudi Arabia's top economic body, the Supreme Economic Council, promised to guarantee bank deposits.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Nov. 29 - The central bank set up a new additional facility for commercial banks. The facility is at the rate of 50 basis points above the 3 months EIBOR. It also said it stood behind UAE banks and branches of foreign banks.
Nov. 25- Duabi government raised a further $5 billion as part of a $20 billion bond programme launched in 2009.
Aug. 31 - Central bank said would cut interest rate on its liquidity support facilities to banks to 1.5 percent from 2.5 percent in a bid to boost economic growth and spur lending. The cut would take effect starting Sept. 1.
Aug. 26 - Central bank official said new UAE EIBOR panel to consist of 11 banks.
Aug. 19 - Central bank will introduce an official interbank offered benchmark rate mechanism in the first half of September.
Aug. 5 - Country's interbank rates dropped after announcement of central bank benchmark plan.
Aug. 4 - Central bank said it planned to set up an Emirates Interbank Offered Rate (EIBOR) that would create an official benchmark for the dirham's offered rate, and ensure a better view of "prevailing market conditions."
July 16 - Central bank met commercial banks to assess potential problems due to lending to troubled Saudi family conglomerates.
Feb. 25 - Dubai said it is working on a stimulus package to support small- and medium-sized companies.
Feb. 22 - Dubai launched a $20 billion bond programme and sold the first $10 billion tranche to the UAE central bank, easing worries state-linked companies could default on debts.
Feb. 4 - Abu Dhabi government said it plans to inject $4.4 billion to recapitalise five of its banks.
Jan. 19 - UAE lowered overnight repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 1 percent.
Nov - The government set up a committee to come up with policy responses to the crisis, including the economy minister, central bank governor and minister of state for finance.
Oct. 21 - The finance ministry poured $6.8 billion into bank deposits, the first tranche of a $19.1-billion rescue facility. It deposited another $6.8 billion into banks in November.
Oct. 13 - The UAE guaranteed bank deposits.
Oct. 8 - UAE cut repo by 50 basis points to 1.5 percent, and lowered borrowing rate on its $13.6 billion facility.
Sep. 25 - The central bank set up a $13.6 billion emergency bank lending facility.
QATAR
March 24 - Qatar central bank says it has not cut interest rates since the autumn because liquidity is fine and it is tackling inflation.
March 20 - Qatar said it bought $1.79 billion worth of listed banks' investment portfolios.
Jan. 19 - The government ordered two local real estate companies to merge as consolidation rises to face global turmoil.
Oct. 13 - Qatar's sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority, said it would buy 10 percent to 20 percent of listed banks' capital to boost confidence.
OMAN
Jan. 27 - Oman said it would start a $390 million market-maker fund on Feb. 1.
Jan. 1 - The central bank reduced bank reserve requirements to 5 percent from 8 percent and raised the lending ratio.
Dec. 4 - The central bank said it amended bank reserve requirement rules to release 270 million riyals ($700 million) into the banking system.
Dec. 31 - Oman raised its repurchase rate by 47 basis points to 2 percent, having lowered the rate by more than 200 basis points between November and mid-December.
Nov. 3 - The central bank allocated about $2 billion to local banks to provide dollar liquidity.
BAHRAIN
Sept 15 - Bahrain's central bank cut its one-week deposit facility by 25 basis points to 0.50 percent from 0.75 percent and kept its overnight deposit facility at 0.25 percent. Repo and lending rates were cut to 2.25 percent from 2.75 percent.
Aug 9 - Bahrain names administrators for Saudi groups' two banks.
July 30 - Bahrain's central bank seized two banks belonging to debt-laden Saudi conglomerates Saad Group and Ahmad Hamad Algosaibi and Brothers.
June 23 - Central bank launched probe at The International Banking Corporation (TIBC) after its owner, Saudi-based Algosaibi group (AHAB), said it had discovered substantial irregularities in its financial services arm.
Mar. 3 - Central bank cuts bank reserve requirements to 5 percent from 7 percent, citing easing inflation.
Dec. 18 - The central bank slashed all key interest rates by 75 basis points in response to a Federal Reserve cut, taking its lending rates to 2.75 percent, its one-week deposit rate to 0.75 percent and its overnight deposit rate to 0.25 percent.
Oct. 30 and Oct. 9, Bahrain cut overnight secured rate and repurchase rate by a combined 175 basis points to 3.5 percent. It cut the one-week deposit rate by 50 basis points to 1.5 percent and the overnight deposit to 1 percent.
Oct. 30 - Central bank expanded acceptable collateral for overnight funds to include ijara sukuk, a type of Islamic bond.
Dubai's government took the latest step on Sunday, and said it would provide additional financing for commercial banks and it stood behind the Gulf Arab country's banking system and branches of foreign banks.
Below are details of government and central bank actions.
KUWAIT
Aug 10 - Kuwait central bank said it would issue $348 million of one-year treasury bonds on Aug. 12.
Aug 4 - Central bank said it would issue $348.8 million of one-year treasury bonds on Aug. 5 at a coupon of 1.5 percent.
July 1 - Central bank cut its three repurchase rates by 25 basis points each, but left its benchmark discount rate on hold.
May 13 - Kuwait central bank decides to cut benchmark discount rate by 50 bps to 3 pct from May 14. This is the fifth cut since October, taking total reduction to 275 basis points.
April 2 - Kuwait's cabinet approved a bylaw to implement a $5.11 billion economic support package, including a guarantee of 50 percent of new loans extended to local firms.
Nov. 19 - The central bank introduced new short-term repurchase agreements to give banks more access to funding.
Dec. 4 - Sovereign wealth fund said it would invest 1.5 billion dinars in local equities, adding later the funds aimed to stabilise the bourse and would invest for the long term.
Oct. 29 - Kuwait passed law guaranteeing all bank deposits after the central bank was forced to save Gulf Bank, which suffered steep derivatives trading losses.
Oct. 9 - The Kuwait Investment Authority pumped cash into the bourse to help stabilise markets.
SAUDI ARABIA
June 16 - Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) halved the interest rate it pays to commercial banks for deposits, but kept its benchmark repurchase rate unchanged.
June 4 - Saudi Arabia's central bank freezes some bank accounts related to industrial group Ahmad Hamad Al Gosaibi Group & Brothers (AHAB), bankers said.
June 1 - Central bank orders domestic lenders to freeze bank accounts of businessman Maan al-Sanea, one of the country's wealthiest businessmen, chairman and founder of the Saad group, and big shareholder in HSBC.
May 17 - Central bank governor said Saudi was drawing on some foreign reserves but not selling foreign assets to finance a growing budget designed to stimulate the economy.
April 14 - Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) cut its reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent. It had reduced the rate in January and December by a total of 125 basis points.
Jan. 19 - SAMA cuts benchmark repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 2 percent, having lowered it by 50 basis points in December. In five moves since October, the repo has been lowered by a total of 350 basis points.
Nov. 23 - SAMA lowered bank reserve requirements to 7 percent from 10 percent. Since October, it has reduced the reserve ratio from 13 percent.
Oct. 21 - SAMA poured $3 billion in long-term bank deposits, its first direct injection of U.S. dollars in a decade.
Oct. 17 - Saudi Arabia's top economic body, the Supreme Economic Council, promised to guarantee bank deposits.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Nov. 29 - The central bank set up a new additional facility for commercial banks. The facility is at the rate of 50 basis points above the 3 months EIBOR. It also said it stood behind UAE banks and branches of foreign banks.
Nov. 25- Duabi government raised a further $5 billion as part of a $20 billion bond programme launched in 2009.
Aug. 31 - Central bank said would cut interest rate on its liquidity support facilities to banks to 1.5 percent from 2.5 percent in a bid to boost economic growth and spur lending. The cut would take effect starting Sept. 1.
Aug. 26 - Central bank official said new UAE EIBOR panel to consist of 11 banks.
Aug. 19 - Central bank will introduce an official interbank offered benchmark rate mechanism in the first half of September.
Aug. 5 - Country's interbank rates dropped after announcement of central bank benchmark plan.
Aug. 4 - Central bank said it planned to set up an Emirates Interbank Offered Rate (EIBOR) that would create an official benchmark for the dirham's offered rate, and ensure a better view of "prevailing market conditions."
July 16 - Central bank met commercial banks to assess potential problems due to lending to troubled Saudi family conglomerates.
Feb. 25 - Dubai said it is working on a stimulus package to support small- and medium-sized companies.
Feb. 22 - Dubai launched a $20 billion bond programme and sold the first $10 billion tranche to the UAE central bank, easing worries state-linked companies could default on debts.
Feb. 4 - Abu Dhabi government said it plans to inject $4.4 billion to recapitalise five of its banks.
Jan. 19 - UAE lowered overnight repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 1 percent.
Nov - The government set up a committee to come up with policy responses to the crisis, including the economy minister, central bank governor and minister of state for finance.
Oct. 21 - The finance ministry poured $6.8 billion into bank deposits, the first tranche of a $19.1-billion rescue facility. It deposited another $6.8 billion into banks in November.
Oct. 13 - The UAE guaranteed bank deposits.
Oct. 8 - UAE cut repo by 50 basis points to 1.5 percent, and lowered borrowing rate on its $13.6 billion facility.
Sep. 25 - The central bank set up a $13.6 billion emergency bank lending facility.
QATAR
March 24 - Qatar central bank says it has not cut interest rates since the autumn because liquidity is fine and it is tackling inflation.
March 20 - Qatar said it bought $1.79 billion worth of listed banks' investment portfolios.
Jan. 19 - The government ordered two local real estate companies to merge as consolidation rises to face global turmoil.
Oct. 13 - Qatar's sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority, said it would buy 10 percent to 20 percent of listed banks' capital to boost confidence.
OMAN
Jan. 27 - Oman said it would start a $390 million market-maker fund on Feb. 1.
Jan. 1 - The central bank reduced bank reserve requirements to 5 percent from 8 percent and raised the lending ratio.
Dec. 4 - The central bank said it amended bank reserve requirement rules to release 270 million riyals ($700 million) into the banking system.
Dec. 31 - Oman raised its repurchase rate by 47 basis points to 2 percent, having lowered the rate by more than 200 basis points between November and mid-December.
Nov. 3 - The central bank allocated about $2 billion to local banks to provide dollar liquidity.
BAHRAIN
Sept 15 - Bahrain's central bank cut its one-week deposit facility by 25 basis points to 0.50 percent from 0.75 percent and kept its overnight deposit facility at 0.25 percent. Repo and lending rates were cut to 2.25 percent from 2.75 percent.
Aug 9 - Bahrain names administrators for Saudi groups' two banks.
July 30 - Bahrain's central bank seized two banks belonging to debt-laden Saudi conglomerates Saad Group and Ahmad Hamad Algosaibi and Brothers.
June 23 - Central bank launched probe at The International Banking Corporation (TIBC) after its owner, Saudi-based Algosaibi group (AHAB), said it had discovered substantial irregularities in its financial services arm.
Mar. 3 - Central bank cuts bank reserve requirements to 5 percent from 7 percent, citing easing inflation.
Dec. 18 - The central bank slashed all key interest rates by 75 basis points in response to a Federal Reserve cut, taking its lending rates to 2.75 percent, its one-week deposit rate to 0.75 percent and its overnight deposit rate to 0.25 percent.
Oct. 30 and Oct. 9, Bahrain cut overnight secured rate and repurchase rate by a combined 175 basis points to 3.5 percent. It cut the one-week deposit rate by 50 basis points to 1.5 percent and the overnight deposit to 1 percent.
Oct. 30 - Central bank expanded acceptable collateral for overnight funds to include ijara sukuk, a type of Islamic bond.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Dubai debt worries to hit stock markets
World stocks fell as news of Dubai asking for a creditor standstill at Dubai World and Vietnam's currency devaluation, increased investors' aversion to risk.
Dubai's financial health has come under scrutiny after a major, government-owned investment company asked for a six-month delay on repaying its debts. Dubai World, which has total debts of $59bn (£35bn), is asking creditors if it can postpone its forthcoming payments until May next year. Dubai World has also appointed global accountancy group Deloitte to help with its financial restructuring. The company has been hit hard by the global credit crunch and recession. It was due to repay $3.5bn of its debts next month.
The request for a delay in repayments led to major credit ratings agencies downgrading a number of state-backed companies. Following six years of rapid growth, the Dubai economy has slumped since the second half of 2008. The Dubai government said in a statement that the request to delay debt repayments also applied to property developer Nakheel, a Dubai World subsidiary.
The announcement raised concern about the once-booming Gulf region's financial health and added to general nervousness in financial markets about the real state of the world economy at a time when investors are also seeking to lock in 2009 profits
Meanwhile, Vietnam's stock market tumbled after the nation's central bank devalued the currency by around 5% against the US dollar and raised interest rates by a percentage point to 8% from 1 December 2009..
Dubai's financial health has come under scrutiny after a major, government-owned investment company asked for a six-month delay on repaying its debts. Dubai World, which has total debts of $59bn (£35bn), is asking creditors if it can postpone its forthcoming payments until May next year. Dubai World has also appointed global accountancy group Deloitte to help with its financial restructuring. The company has been hit hard by the global credit crunch and recession. It was due to repay $3.5bn of its debts next month.
The request for a delay in repayments led to major credit ratings agencies downgrading a number of state-backed companies. Following six years of rapid growth, the Dubai economy has slumped since the second half of 2008. The Dubai government said in a statement that the request to delay debt repayments also applied to property developer Nakheel, a Dubai World subsidiary.
The announcement raised concern about the once-booming Gulf region's financial health and added to general nervousness in financial markets about the real state of the world economy at a time when investors are also seeking to lock in 2009 profits
Meanwhile, Vietnam's stock market tumbled after the nation's central bank devalued the currency by around 5% against the US dollar and raised interest rates by a percentage point to 8% from 1 December 2009..
Friday, November 20, 2009
Gold surges to Rs 17,500 per 10 gm
20 Nov 2009, 1721 hrs IST, PTI
NEW DELHI: Continuing its record setting spree, gold today surged by Rs 100 and touched a new high of Rs 17,500 per 10 gram in the bullion market here on heavy buying by jewellery makers amid firming global trend.
Silver coins also rose to an all-time high of Rs 34,200 for buying and Rs 34,300 for selling of 100 pieces, recording a significant rise of Rs 200.
Analysts said that gold prices might touch Rs 18,000-level here once physical buying starts in the overseas market ahead of the Christmas season.
Gold, which moves in tandem with the international trend, got support from firming global cues rather than physical buying for the current marriage season, said Mahesh Verma of OM Sons jewellers.
The yellow metal in the overseas markets rose to 1,154 dollar an ounce.
Some of the investor funds were seen shifting from volatile equities to bullion, boosting gold prices.
The precious metal commenced its upward journey ever since the Reserve Bank of India bought 200 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund, raising fears that some more central banks may follow suit.
The major transaction took place at a time when the market was passing through a hectic time of marriage season buying. Besides, a firming global trend due to dollar's weakeness overseas boosted demand for the metal as an alternate investment.
Gold, which had gained Rs 400 in last four sessions, rose further by Rs 100 to Rs 17,500 per 10 gram, a level never seen before.
Standard gold and ornaments shot up further by Rs 100 each to set a new peak of Rs 17,500 and Rs 17,350 per 10 gram respectively, while sovereign rose to a new peak of Rs 13,550 by gaining Rs 50 per piece of eight gram.
Silver ready rose by Rs 80 to Rs 28,680 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 200 to Rs 28,400 per kg.
NEW DELHI: Continuing its record setting spree, gold today surged by Rs 100 and touched a new high of Rs 17,500 per 10 gram in the bullion market here on heavy buying by jewellery makers amid firming global trend.
Silver coins also rose to an all-time high of Rs 34,200 for buying and Rs 34,300 for selling of 100 pieces, recording a significant rise of Rs 200.
Analysts said that gold prices might touch Rs 18,000-level here once physical buying starts in the overseas market ahead of the Christmas season.
Gold, which moves in tandem with the international trend, got support from firming global cues rather than physical buying for the current marriage season, said Mahesh Verma of OM Sons jewellers.
The yellow metal in the overseas markets rose to 1,154 dollar an ounce.
Some of the investor funds were seen shifting from volatile equities to bullion, boosting gold prices.
The precious metal commenced its upward journey ever since the Reserve Bank of India bought 200 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund, raising fears that some more central banks may follow suit.
The major transaction took place at a time when the market was passing through a hectic time of marriage season buying. Besides, a firming global trend due to dollar's weakeness overseas boosted demand for the metal as an alternate investment.
Gold, which had gained Rs 400 in last four sessions, rose further by Rs 100 to Rs 17,500 per 10 gram, a level never seen before.
Standard gold and ornaments shot up further by Rs 100 each to set a new peak of Rs 17,500 and Rs 17,350 per 10 gram respectively, while sovereign rose to a new peak of Rs 13,550 by gaining Rs 50 per piece of eight gram.
Silver ready rose by Rs 80 to Rs 28,680 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 200 to Rs 28,400 per kg.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
GAIL to benefit from Gas Highways Authority of India
GAIL Cmp Rs.383 Solid Long term Buy
PSU Stocks has been active in recent days after Government said it wants to raise money to bridge fiscal deficit.
India has just 10500km of pipelines and even a small neighboring country Pakistan has 56400km of pipeline which is nearly 6 times that of India’s (2007 stats). India needs a bigger pipeline Infrastructure and the government has already started action on this need- the government is likely to put in place an apex planning body for laying major gas pipeline projects - Gas Highways Authority of India (GHAI) on the lines of the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) - by March 2010 and GAIL, being vastly experienced, will be one Company which can benefit from pipeline highway.
GAIL’s pipeline is around 7,000 km long now and would go up to 14,000 km by FY-2013, Transmission capacity would increase to 300 mmscmd from 150 mmscmd. GAIL current capacity utilisation to be 55-60% is expected higher with capacity utilisation at 70-75% by 2012-13. New tariff regime – likely to be announced by December2009, average blended tariff to increase by 5-10% say’s management in analyst meet.
Negative: Subsidy sharing for Oil losses has been drag on the stock, GAIL management reportedly asked the Petroleum Ministry to exempt it from sharing the subsidy burden as it did not benefit from any uptick in crude oil prices.
Many fears of rising Global asset bubble due to low interest rates in my view can come true, so my selection of stocks are mostly on strength of promoters and GAIL being a PSU can with stand a Double recession if it were to happen.
World Bank president: some risks to global growth in 2010, asset bubbles could undermine confidence in East Asia economies, there is some pressure on China to strengthen yuan
by A.K.PRABHAKAR
PSU Stocks has been active in recent days after Government said it wants to raise money to bridge fiscal deficit.
India has just 10500km of pipelines and even a small neighboring country Pakistan has 56400km of pipeline which is nearly 6 times that of India’s (2007 stats). India needs a bigger pipeline Infrastructure and the government has already started action on this need- the government is likely to put in place an apex planning body for laying major gas pipeline projects - Gas Highways Authority of India (GHAI) on the lines of the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) - by March 2010 and GAIL, being vastly experienced, will be one Company which can benefit from pipeline highway.
GAIL’s pipeline is around 7,000 km long now and would go up to 14,000 km by FY-2013, Transmission capacity would increase to 300 mmscmd from 150 mmscmd. GAIL current capacity utilisation to be 55-60% is expected higher with capacity utilisation at 70-75% by 2012-13. New tariff regime – likely to be announced by December2009, average blended tariff to increase by 5-10% say’s management in analyst meet.
Negative: Subsidy sharing for Oil losses has been drag on the stock, GAIL management reportedly asked the Petroleum Ministry to exempt it from sharing the subsidy burden as it did not benefit from any uptick in crude oil prices.
Many fears of rising Global asset bubble due to low interest rates in my view can come true, so my selection of stocks are mostly on strength of promoters and GAIL being a PSU can with stand a Double recession if it were to happen.
World Bank president: some risks to global growth in 2010, asset bubbles could undermine confidence in East Asia economies, there is some pressure on China to strengthen yuan
by A.K.PRABHAKAR
Pakistan has more nuclear weapons than India: Report
17 Nov 2009, 2216 hrs IST, PTI
WASHINGTON: Pakistan is estimated to have more nuclear warheads than India and the two Asian neighbours along with China are increasing their arsenals and deploying weapons at more sites, two eminent American nuclear experts have said.
While Pakistan is estimated to possess 70-90 nuclear weapons, India is believed to have 60-80, claims Robert S Norris and Hans M Kristensen in their latest article 'Nuclear Notebook: Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2009'.
The article published in the latest issue of 'Bulletin of the Atomic Science' claimed that Beijing, Islamabad, and New Delhi are quantitatively and qualitatively increasing their arsenals and deploying weapons at more sites, yet the locations are difficult to pinpoint.
For example, no reliable public information exists on where Pakistan or India produces its nuclear weapons, it said.
"Whereas many of the Chinese bases are known, this is not the case in Pakistan and India, where we have found no credible information that identifies permanent nuclear weapons storage locations," they said.
"Pakistan's nuclear weapons are not believed to be fully operational under normal circumstances, India is thought to store its nuclear warheads and bombs in central storage locations rather than on bases with operational forces. But, since all three countries are expanding their arsenals, new bases and storage sites probably are under construction," the two nuclear experts said.
WASHINGTON: Pakistan is estimated to have more nuclear warheads than India and the two Asian neighbours along with China are increasing their arsenals and deploying weapons at more sites, two eminent American nuclear experts have said.
While Pakistan is estimated to possess 70-90 nuclear weapons, India is believed to have 60-80, claims Robert S Norris and Hans M Kristensen in their latest article 'Nuclear Notebook: Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2009'.
The article published in the latest issue of 'Bulletin of the Atomic Science' claimed that Beijing, Islamabad, and New Delhi are quantitatively and qualitatively increasing their arsenals and deploying weapons at more sites, yet the locations are difficult to pinpoint.
For example, no reliable public information exists on where Pakistan or India produces its nuclear weapons, it said.
"Whereas many of the Chinese bases are known, this is not the case in Pakistan and India, where we have found no credible information that identifies permanent nuclear weapons storage locations," they said.
"Pakistan's nuclear weapons are not believed to be fully operational under normal circumstances, India is thought to store its nuclear warheads and bombs in central storage locations rather than on bases with operational forces. But, since all three countries are expanding their arsenals, new bases and storage sites probably are under construction," the two nuclear experts said.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Bank profits to be under pressure in next 6 months
6 Nov 2009, 0104 hrs IST, Karan Sehgal & Pallavi Mulay, ET Bureau
The profitability of Indian banks is expected to be under pressure over the next two quarters. The possibility of lower treasury gains and muted growth in net interest income (NII) is expected to curtail the growth of banking sector.
The top 10 Indian banks made more than Rs 6,000 crore collectively from treasury operations in the first half of FY10 (Apr-Mar) against only Rs 220 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. This was possible because bond yields were declining and bond prices were moving up. However, a further softening of yields is unlikely.
“RBI’s latest quarterly review of monetary policy indicates that we are at the bottom of a soft interest-rate regime. Thus, high treasury income earned in the first-half from government Securities’ (G-sec) portfolio may not recur in coming quarters,” said Ravi Mehta, research analyst, Indsec Securities & Finance. The central bank restored the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) to 25% from 24%, in a bid to reduce the liquidity in the banking system and send out a signal that a further softening of rates is ruled out.
Interestingly, banks have piled up investments in G-secs. The aggregate G-sec investment of Indian banks increased by 42% as on October 2009 from the year-ago level. If interest rates were to rise, banks would have to incur mark-to-market losses. “Public sector banks have high exposure to low-yield high-duration G-secs. They are more exposed to market risk than their private sector counterparts,” said Vaibhav Agrawal, AV-P, banking, Angel Broking.
While treasury income is expected to decline, banks can derive solace from a likelihood of better growth in non-food credit growth in the second-half of the current fiscal. Non-food credit offtake of the banking sector grew by a mere 11% year-on-year in the first week of October, the lowest growth observed in almost a decade. However, experts feel that the worst is over.
“If the GDP is forecast to grow at 6-6.2% during FY10, a 15-16% growth in non-food credit cannot be ruled out,” says Indranil Pan, chief economist with Kotak Mahindra Bank. According to Mr Pan, since real activity is gaining momentum, metal and infrastructure companies will be major borrowers of bank funds.
Siddhartha Sanyal, chief economist of Edelweiss Securities, echoes similar views. Many factors influencing demand for and supply of credit have turned positive now, he maintains. The demand for funds is likely to go up as working capital investment increases on account of a pick-up in industrial production and rising commodity prices. However, there is a catch here too.
Banks had mobilised high-cost deposits in the second-half of the previous fiscal, leading to a contraction of their net interest margin (NIM), the difference between interest earned and paid. Bankers say going forward NIMs will improve on a retirement of high-cost funds and mobilisation of low-cost deposits. However, that improvement will only be on quarter-on-quarter basis.
On a y-o-y basis, spreads in December 2009 quarter will still be less than the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. Therefore, despite a pick- up in credit offtake, banks will find it difficult to grow NII as high-cost deposits will still have a lag effect. This will lead to muted NII growth, which, coupled with low treasury gains, hints that banks will see a dip in their net profit in the second half of the fiscal.
VIA:E.T
The profitability of Indian banks is expected to be under pressure over the next two quarters. The possibility of lower treasury gains and muted growth in net interest income (NII) is expected to curtail the growth of banking sector.
The top 10 Indian banks made more than Rs 6,000 crore collectively from treasury operations in the first half of FY10 (Apr-Mar) against only Rs 220 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. This was possible because bond yields were declining and bond prices were moving up. However, a further softening of yields is unlikely.
“RBI’s latest quarterly review of monetary policy indicates that we are at the bottom of a soft interest-rate regime. Thus, high treasury income earned in the first-half from government Securities’ (G-sec) portfolio may not recur in coming quarters,” said Ravi Mehta, research analyst, Indsec Securities & Finance. The central bank restored the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) to 25% from 24%, in a bid to reduce the liquidity in the banking system and send out a signal that a further softening of rates is ruled out.
Interestingly, banks have piled up investments in G-secs. The aggregate G-sec investment of Indian banks increased by 42% as on October 2009 from the year-ago level. If interest rates were to rise, banks would have to incur mark-to-market losses. “Public sector banks have high exposure to low-yield high-duration G-secs. They are more exposed to market risk than their private sector counterparts,” said Vaibhav Agrawal, AV-P, banking, Angel Broking.
While treasury income is expected to decline, banks can derive solace from a likelihood of better growth in non-food credit growth in the second-half of the current fiscal. Non-food credit offtake of the banking sector grew by a mere 11% year-on-year in the first week of October, the lowest growth observed in almost a decade. However, experts feel that the worst is over.
“If the GDP is forecast to grow at 6-6.2% during FY10, a 15-16% growth in non-food credit cannot be ruled out,” says Indranil Pan, chief economist with Kotak Mahindra Bank. According to Mr Pan, since real activity is gaining momentum, metal and infrastructure companies will be major borrowers of bank funds.
Siddhartha Sanyal, chief economist of Edelweiss Securities, echoes similar views. Many factors influencing demand for and supply of credit have turned positive now, he maintains. The demand for funds is likely to go up as working capital investment increases on account of a pick-up in industrial production and rising commodity prices. However, there is a catch here too.
Banks had mobilised high-cost deposits in the second-half of the previous fiscal, leading to a contraction of their net interest margin (NIM), the difference between interest earned and paid. Bankers say going forward NIMs will improve on a retirement of high-cost funds and mobilisation of low-cost deposits. However, that improvement will only be on quarter-on-quarter basis.
On a y-o-y basis, spreads in December 2009 quarter will still be less than the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. Therefore, despite a pick- up in credit offtake, banks will find it difficult to grow NII as high-cost deposits will still have a lag effect. This will lead to muted NII growth, which, coupled with low treasury gains, hints that banks will see a dip in their net profit in the second half of the fiscal.
VIA:E.T
Sudha Murthy sells 20 L Infy shares for Rs 445 cr
6 Nov 2009, 0318 hrs IST, ET Bureau
BANGALORE: Sudha Murthy, the better half of the first couple of India’s IT industry, has made her second big venture capital investment. When husband N R Narayana Murthy was setting up Infosys in 1981 on a wing and a prayer, she gave him Rs 10,000 from her savings. Look what has happened to that money.
On Thursday, an Infosys announcement made clear that not much had changed between the couple in 28 years. This time, Mr Murthy’s big idea is called Catamaran — a venture capital fund — and his wife is helping him with a small matter of some Rs 430 crore.
The social worker and author sold 20 lakh Infosys shares owned by her, boosting the corpus of Catamaran to Rs 605 crore. Mr Murthy announced two weeks ago that he had sold eight lakh shares in the company he founded to establish a venture capital fund which will assist young entrepreneurs, mainly from India.
The couple don’t have any immediate plans to raise any more capital for Catamaran.
“Sudha Murthy selling shares is a good thing and it is nice to see somebody step away and help others become successful,” observed Sourabh Srivatsava, president of the India Venture Capital Association.
“We are beginning to see individuals and families getting active in this space,” he added, referring to similar ventures by the Future Group, Azim Premji’s PremjiInvest and the Religare Group.
Infosys’ shareholding pattern at the end of September showed Mr Murthy and his family owning a 4.97% stake in the company. His wife owned 1.62%, daughter Akshata 1.41% and son Rohan 1.39%.
Close observers of the venture capital industry believe that Mr Murthy will likely model Catamaran on the lines of Nadathur Holdings, a venture fund set up by former colleague and Infosys co-founder N S Raghavan. A family-administered fund, Nadathur Holdings was set up around nine years ago and backs scientific or business innovation driven startups.
Mr Murthy has said that his fund will help entrepreneurs across sectors such as healthcare, retail, technology with early stage investments. “I have always believed that entrepreneurship is an instrument of creating jobs and is the best way to solve poverty of a country like India.”
Catamaran is likely to be launched during the early part of 2010 and look at funding entrepreneurs as
well as making private equity investments in established businesses. Most of the investment activity is likely to centred around India but it may include some overseas ventures.
“We will not be in a hurry to finish the fund; there’s no limit for spending,” Mr Murthy said two weeks ago.
Infosys also told the stock exchanges on Thursday that its MD & CEO S Gopalakrishnan has acquired four lakh shares in the company through open market purchases, taking his total holding 66.56 lakh shares.
via:E.T
BANGALORE: Sudha Murthy, the better half of the first couple of India’s IT industry, has made her second big venture capital investment. When husband N R Narayana Murthy was setting up Infosys in 1981 on a wing and a prayer, she gave him Rs 10,000 from her savings. Look what has happened to that money.
On Thursday, an Infosys announcement made clear that not much had changed between the couple in 28 years. This time, Mr Murthy’s big idea is called Catamaran — a venture capital fund — and his wife is helping him with a small matter of some Rs 430 crore.
The social worker and author sold 20 lakh Infosys shares owned by her, boosting the corpus of Catamaran to Rs 605 crore. Mr Murthy announced two weeks ago that he had sold eight lakh shares in the company he founded to establish a venture capital fund which will assist young entrepreneurs, mainly from India.
The couple don’t have any immediate plans to raise any more capital for Catamaran.
“Sudha Murthy selling shares is a good thing and it is nice to see somebody step away and help others become successful,” observed Sourabh Srivatsava, president of the India Venture Capital Association.
“We are beginning to see individuals and families getting active in this space,” he added, referring to similar ventures by the Future Group, Azim Premji’s PremjiInvest and the Religare Group.
Infosys’ shareholding pattern at the end of September showed Mr Murthy and his family owning a 4.97% stake in the company. His wife owned 1.62%, daughter Akshata 1.41% and son Rohan 1.39%.
Close observers of the venture capital industry believe that Mr Murthy will likely model Catamaran on the lines of Nadathur Holdings, a venture fund set up by former colleague and Infosys co-founder N S Raghavan. A family-administered fund, Nadathur Holdings was set up around nine years ago and backs scientific or business innovation driven startups.
Mr Murthy has said that his fund will help entrepreneurs across sectors such as healthcare, retail, technology with early stage investments. “I have always believed that entrepreneurship is an instrument of creating jobs and is the best way to solve poverty of a country like India.”
Catamaran is likely to be launched during the early part of 2010 and look at funding entrepreneurs as
well as making private equity investments in established businesses. Most of the investment activity is likely to centred around India but it may include some overseas ventures.
“We will not be in a hurry to finish the fund; there’s no limit for spending,” Mr Murthy said two weeks ago.
Infosys also told the stock exchanges on Thursday that its MD & CEO S Gopalakrishnan has acquired four lakh shares in the company through open market purchases, taking his total holding 66.56 lakh shares.
via:E.T
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
RBI buys 200 mt gold from IMF to pump up reserves' value
4 Nov 2009, 0137 hrs IST, ET Bureau
MUMBAI: The purchase of 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by the Reserve Bank of India will not just diversify the country’s foreign exchange reserves but also boost of the value of the reserves.
On Tuesday, RBI announced that it had concluded the purchase of 200 metric tonne of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), under the Fund’s limited gold sales programme. The central bank said that it was an official sector off-market transaction and was executed over a two-week period during October 19-30, 2009 at market-based prices.
Gold prices have been moving up faster than the major global currencies — which is expected to boost the value of the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
This is the first time that the Reserve Bank has bought such a large amount of gold globally. Interestingly, the market import of gold has dipped sharply this year on account of high international prices and low demand. Years ago, confiscated smuggled gold used to be assigned to RBI vaults.
However, with the opening up of the economy, gold smuggling has virtually stopped. For many year’s the central bank gold holdings remained constant at about 11.5 million troy ounce accounting for 4% its reserves worth $285 billion now.
The recent purchase of close to 6.5 million troy ounce would raise the share of gold in India’s foreign exchange reserves to about 6%. The gold is valued at the month end closing price on the London bullion exchange.
With international gold prices touching a new high every day, this part of the reserves has seen a sharp appreciation. In the month of September, reserves rose $485 million only on account of the rise in valuation of gold in reserves.
In its official release, IMF has said that the total sales proceeds are equivalent to US$ 6.7 billion or SDR 4.2 billion. MD Dominique Strauss-Kahn indicated that the proceeds from the gold sale will help the Fund, step up much-needed concessional lending to the poorest countries.
As for the central bank, there is no official communication either being the intent of such a move or its plans for the purchased gold. But experts say the move could help the central bank diversify its reserves and would not have a significant impact on the overall foreign exchange reserves position, said a former top RBI official.
This is because these purchases are reckoned to be carried out from the $4.8 billion worth SDR allocation that the RBI had obtained from the Fund earlier this year. The IMF had allocated $4.8 billion by way of general allocation of special drawing rights (SDR) — the reserve currency with the IMF — in August this year as part of its SDR 161.2 billion package allocated to member countries.
The value of SDR is a weighted average of a basket of currencies which includes the US dollar, the Sterling pound, the yen and the euro. The weightage to each currency
which is revised at regular intervals depends on their prevailing relative importance in the global markets.
via:E.T
MUMBAI: The purchase of 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by the Reserve Bank of India will not just diversify the country’s foreign exchange reserves but also boost of the value of the reserves.
On Tuesday, RBI announced that it had concluded the purchase of 200 metric tonne of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), under the Fund’s limited gold sales programme. The central bank said that it was an official sector off-market transaction and was executed over a two-week period during October 19-30, 2009 at market-based prices.
Gold prices have been moving up faster than the major global currencies — which is expected to boost the value of the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
This is the first time that the Reserve Bank has bought such a large amount of gold globally. Interestingly, the market import of gold has dipped sharply this year on account of high international prices and low demand. Years ago, confiscated smuggled gold used to be assigned to RBI vaults.
However, with the opening up of the economy, gold smuggling has virtually stopped. For many year’s the central bank gold holdings remained constant at about 11.5 million troy ounce accounting for 4% its reserves worth $285 billion now.
The recent purchase of close to 6.5 million troy ounce would raise the share of gold in India’s foreign exchange reserves to about 6%. The gold is valued at the month end closing price on the London bullion exchange.
With international gold prices touching a new high every day, this part of the reserves has seen a sharp appreciation. In the month of September, reserves rose $485 million only on account of the rise in valuation of gold in reserves.
In its official release, IMF has said that the total sales proceeds are equivalent to US$ 6.7 billion or SDR 4.2 billion. MD Dominique Strauss-Kahn indicated that the proceeds from the gold sale will help the Fund, step up much-needed concessional lending to the poorest countries.
As for the central bank, there is no official communication either being the intent of such a move or its plans for the purchased gold. But experts say the move could help the central bank diversify its reserves and would not have a significant impact on the overall foreign exchange reserves position, said a former top RBI official.
This is because these purchases are reckoned to be carried out from the $4.8 billion worth SDR allocation that the RBI had obtained from the Fund earlier this year. The IMF had allocated $4.8 billion by way of general allocation of special drawing rights (SDR) — the reserve currency with the IMF — in August this year as part of its SDR 161.2 billion package allocated to member countries.
The value of SDR is a weighted average of a basket of currencies which includes the US dollar, the Sterling pound, the yen and the euro. The weightage to each currency
which is revised at regular intervals depends on their prevailing relative importance in the global markets.
via:E.T
Monday, November 2, 2009
SFIO set to probe into Sesa Goa
The government has ordered the SFIO to probe into mismanagement and financial irregularities in Vedanta Group-owned Sesa Goa and its subsidiary Sesa Industries (SIL), the company said on Thursday.
“The scope of (SFIO) investigation include looking into the state of affairs of the company and its subsidiary Sesa Industries Ltd, in respect of mismanagement, malpractices, financial and other irregularities,” Sesa Goa said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.
The Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) enquiry, to be completed in six months, follows a probe by Registrar of Companies which was looking into Sesa Goa’s case since 2003. “The company... has received request from the RoC for information for the period from 2001 to 2009,” the statement said, adding it also received an intimation for the SFIO probe from the ministry of corporate affairs on Wednesday.
Clarifying its position, Sesa Goa said, “the company believes that the investigation originates from the complaints filed by one of the shareholders of SIL against SIL, the company and the directors in 2003, prior to the acquisition of the company by Vedanta in April 2007.”
The company added it will fully cooperate with the investigation and expressed its commitment to follow the highest norms for corporate governance and transparency. Following the announcement, Sesa Goa shares fell as much as 6% in morning trade on the BSE. It was trading down 1.6% in the afternoon session.
Allegations against the company, official sources said, also include diversion of funds. The RoC had submitted its report on Sesa Goa early last week. On Wednesday, corporate affairs minister Salman Khurshid had termed the inspection as a “normal procedure” and said, “These (inspections) are procedures that have to be followed before taking a final decision.”
Another case pertaining to merger of Sesa Goa, the country’s leading iron ore producer, with its subsidiary Sesa Industries is pending before the Supreme Court. The London-based Vedanta Resources in 2007 had acquired a 51% controlling stake in Sesa Goa from Mitsui & Co, for $981 million. AGENCIES
“The scope of (SFIO) investigation include looking into the state of affairs of the company and its subsidiary Sesa Industries Ltd, in respect of mismanagement, malpractices, financial and other irregularities,” Sesa Goa said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.
The Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) enquiry, to be completed in six months, follows a probe by Registrar of Companies which was looking into Sesa Goa’s case since 2003. “The company... has received request from the RoC for information for the period from 2001 to 2009,” the statement said, adding it also received an intimation for the SFIO probe from the ministry of corporate affairs on Wednesday.
Clarifying its position, Sesa Goa said, “the company believes that the investigation originates from the complaints filed by one of the shareholders of SIL against SIL, the company and the directors in 2003, prior to the acquisition of the company by Vedanta in April 2007.”
The company added it will fully cooperate with the investigation and expressed its commitment to follow the highest norms for corporate governance and transparency. Following the announcement, Sesa Goa shares fell as much as 6% in morning trade on the BSE. It was trading down 1.6% in the afternoon session.
Allegations against the company, official sources said, also include diversion of funds. The RoC had submitted its report on Sesa Goa early last week. On Wednesday, corporate affairs minister Salman Khurshid had termed the inspection as a “normal procedure” and said, “These (inspections) are procedures that have to be followed before taking a final decision.”
Another case pertaining to merger of Sesa Goa, the country’s leading iron ore producer, with its subsidiary Sesa Industries is pending before the Supreme Court. The London-based Vedanta Resources in 2007 had acquired a 51% controlling stake in Sesa Goa from Mitsui & Co, for $981 million. AGENCIES
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