Bearish phase may pull down India's GDP to 3 pc: Morgan Stanley

2 Mar 2009, 2038 hrs IST, PTI

Continuation of the bearish phase in the global economy could pull down India's economic growth rate to a dismal 3 per cent in 2009, said international financial services major Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley's research report released on Monday said, depending upon the extent of economic recovery in the developed world, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate during 2009 could range between 3 per cent and 5 per cent.

"Based on bull-bear case outlook for G7 (club of developed countries), we see bull scenario growth for India at 5 per cent in 2009 and 7.4 per cent in 2010 and bear case at 3 per cent in 2009 and 4.5 per cent in 2010", it added.

However, on an average, the report projected India's economic growth rate for 2009 at 4.3 per cent and for 2010 at 6.1 per cent.

According to advance estimates of national income released by the government recently, the economic growth rate during 2008-09 is expected to moderate to 7.1 per cent from 9 per cent in the previous fiscal.

The third quarter growth (October-December 2008) rate has been estimated at 5.3 per cent, down from 8.9 per cent posted during the corresponding period last year.